National Treasury says Statistics South Africa’s (Stats SA) 2026 rebasing and benchmarking of gross domestic product (GDP) data has increased the measured level of nominal GDP by 5.1% (R393 billion).
In a statement on Thursday, National Treasury said it had updated key fiscal ratios, following the GDP revision announced by Stats SA on 29 October 2026. The updated ratios reflect a mechanical adjustment based on Stats SA’s revised GDP data.
“Based on Stats SA’s updated numbers, the debt to Gross Domestic Product ratio peaked at 74.6% in 2025/26, down from the 78.4% estimated in the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). The debt-to-GDP ratio falls below 70% by 2032/33, a year earlier than forecast in the MTBPS,” National Treasury said.
Other key fiscal ratios have also declined. The primary surplus is now 1.6% of GDP in 2026/27, compared with 1.7% in the MTBPS, rising to 2.8% in 2029/30, compared with 2.9%. The main budget deficit for 2026/27 is now 3.5% of GDP, compared with 3.7%.
National Treasury said the revised ratios do not reflect changes to government’s revenue, spending or debt projections.
The 2027 Budget will provide further details, including updated economic forecasts and fiscal projections.
“Our updated calculations confirm that government continues to achieve its fiscal targets, with the fiscal metrics looking even better than we had projected based on Statistics South Africa’s revised GDP data. We are restoring fiscal credibility and South Africa is seeing the benefits in lower borrowing costs and a stronger foundation for investment and growth,” National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said.
The benchmarking exercise uses improved data and methods to incorporate major changes in the economy’s structure into GDP calculations, ensuring they more accurately reflect its size and composition.
“Historically, Stats SA’s five-yearly benchmarking exercises have often increased the estimated size of the economy – the absolute level of GDP – but have seldom impacted economic growth rates meaningfully,” National Treasury said.
The higher nominal GDP figure reduces fiscal ratios that use it as the denominator.
On average, the consolidated budget deficit improves by 0.2 percentage points of GDP for the current fiscal year and over the medium term. The main budget primary surplus is revised down by an average of 0.1 percentage points over the medium term. –SAnews.gov.za
Source: Original report at SAnews.gov.za.
