South Africa’s debt burden looks smaller against the revised size of the economy, but government’s cash forecasts have not changed.
National Treasury’s Thursday update puts the debt-to-GDP peak for 2025/26 at 74.6%, compared with 78.4% in the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, according to SAnews.
The change follows Statistics South Africa’s GDP revision announced on 29 October. A larger measured economy reduces ratios calculated against GDP without reducing the rand amount owed.
Deficit and surplus ratios change
The main budget deficit for 2026/27 is now 3.5% of GDP, compared with 3.7% previously. The primary surplus is 1.6% in 2026/27, rising to 2.8% in 2029/30, compared with earlier ratios of 1.7% and 2.9% respectively.
Treasury said the revised ratios do not change its revenue, expenditure or debt projections. Further economic forecasts and fiscal projections are due in the 2027 Budget.
