Treasury lowers debt ratio after GDP revision, with cash forecasts unchanged
Revised GDP changes fiscal ratios without reducing nominal debt projections.
South Africa's debt burden looks smaller against the revised size of the economy, but government's cash forecasts have not changed.
National Treasury's Thursday update puts the debt-to-GDP peak for 2025/26 at 74.6%, compared with 78.4% in the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, according to SAnews.
The change follows Statistics South Africa's GDP revision announced on 29 October. A larger measured economy reduces ratios calculated against GDP without reducing the rand amount owed.
Deficit and surplus ratios change
The main budget deficit for 2026/27 is now 3.5% of GDP, compared with 3.7% previously. The primary surplus is 1.6% in 2026/27, rising to 2.8% in 2029/30, compared with earlier ratios of 1.7% and 2.9% respectively.
Treasury said the revised ratios do not change its revenue, expenditure or debt projections. Further economic forecasts and fiscal projections are due in the 2027 Budget.